R K Ohri
India faces a major demographic upheaval. The sharply rising
Muslim numbers, both in absolute and percentage terms, and a corresponding
decline in the population of Hindus, Sikhs, Jains and Buddhists has the
potential to escalate fault-line conflicts and create a Lebanon-like situation.
Data from the last six censuses held since 1951 suggests that in percentage
terms there has been a relentless increase in the population of only one
community, the Muslims; all other communities are in a declining mode. Since
1981, Muslim population growth has been in a fast forward mode, growing at
almost 45% higher rate than Hindus and Christians. In terms of percentage, Sikh
population has recorded the steepest decline since independence.
Census 2001 put the decadal growth rate of Muslims at around 36%, while Hindu
growth rate declined from 23% to 20%. On the eve of the Maharashtra Assembly
elections, an unseemly political controversy was manufactured by the government
on the ground that since no census had taken place in J&K in 1991, the
conclusions drawn in terms of Census 2001 data were faulty. This led to a very
clumsy fudging of Census 2001, by omitting from the census 3.67 crore people
living in Jammu & Kashmir and Assam, States having high Muslim population.
In 1981, no census could be held in Assam due to disturbed conditions, but that
did not result in any political ruckus, nor was fudging of census data done at
that time because no elections were due then. The most extraordinary aspect of
this fudging of the population profile was the deletion with retrospective
effect of population data of these two sensitive states from every Census held
since 1961 - something never done before in any democratic country.
In a lucid article, professional demographers, late P.N. Mari Bhat and A.J.
Francis Zavier, wrote that “the fertility of Muslims, which was about 10 per
cent higher than that of Hindus before independence, is now 25 to 30 per cent
higher than the Hindu rate”. This means the Muslim population is now growing at
a rate nearly 45% higher than that of Hindus.
The authors added that the assertion in a section of English media that Census
2001 had revealed a higher reduction in the growth rate of Muslims than Hindus
was incorrect. The decline in Hindu growth rate was higher at 12.2% as against
10.3% decline in Muslim growth. Fast growth of Muslim population, especially in
non-Muslim countries, is a global phenomenon, they averred.
There is no truth in the assertion that higher Muslim fertility was due to
poverty or illiteracy. Since 36% Muslims live in urban areas, as against only 26% Hindus, and as Muslims
have a higher life expectancy at birth than Hindus, logically their fertility
should have been lower than Hindus. But Muslim fertility continues to be higher
despite their greater urbanization and lower incidence of infant and child
mortality. Within 7-8 years, the gap between the longevity of Hindus and
Muslims has widened to 3 years, i.e., 68 years for Muslims as against only 65
years for Hindus [National Family Health Survey of
2005-2006].
Acceptance of family planning by Muslims is lower at least by 25 percent than
Hindus and other Indic communities. Late Mari Bhat and Francis Zavier
highlighted the fact that in non-Muslim countries there is a general trend towards
higher growth rate of Muslim populations.
According to the National Family Health Survey-2 of 1998-99, in Kerala where
the literacy level of the two communities was almost equal (and due to large
remittances from Gulf countries Muslims are economically better off than
Hindus), the growth rate of Muslims remained much higher than Hindus by almost
45 percent. Analysis of Census 2001shows that on an average every Muslim woman
is giving birth to at least one more child than her Hindu counterpart.
Indians must understand the mindboggling import of Statement 7 of Census 2001
Religion Data Report (page xlii) which gives the religion-wise breakup of
children in the 0-6 year age group. It shows that the percentage of 0-6 year
old Muslim cohorts (a term commonly used in demographic parlance) is 21% higher
than Hindu cohorts. This gives Muslims an advantage of 7.6% over Hindus as and
when these cohorts enter reproductive age, say roughly between 2012 and 2016.
This gives a vital clue to the demographic crisis likely to engulf India
anytime after 2011 or latest by 2021. These 0-6 yrs old cohorts (enumerated in
2001) will become reproductively active between 2012 and 2016 and continue to
reproduce for the next 30-40 years. With a 21% higher cohort population and at
least 25 percent less acceptance of family planning, the growth in Muslim
population during the next few decades is likely to become even more
fast-paced.
The Census 2001 Religion Data Report further reveals that among all religious
groups, the Muslim population of 0-6 year cohorts was highest at 18.7%. The
lowest percentage was seen among Jains (10.6%) and Sikhs (12.8%). In coming
years, the percentage increase in the population of these two religious groups,
important components of Indic civilization, will be slower than the growth
recorded in Census 2001, and their share in the population will decline
further, possibly at a faster pace.
In terms of percentage increase, the biggest quantum jump in Muslim population
in coming decades will occur in Haryana where the ratio of Muslim cohorts is
almost 60% higher than Hindu cohorts! Next in descending order registering fast
Muslim growth will be Assam, West Bengal, Uttaranchal, Delhi, Nagaland and
Bihar.
A further analysis of 0-6 year cohorts’ data reveals that out of 35 States and
Union Territories listed in Statement 7, the percentage of Muslim cohorts was
higher than Hindu cohorts in as many as 31 States and UTs. The percentage of
0-6 year Hindu cohorts was marginally higher than Muslims only in Sikkim and
Madhya Pradesh and the UTs of Daman & Diu and Andaman & Nicobar
Islands. In coming decades, Muslim population will grow at a higher rate than
that of Hindus in 31 States and Union Territories.
Statement 7 of Census 2001 Religion Data Report is self explanatory and vividly
depicts the looming shadow of future demographic changes across India.
Trapped in a suicidal cult of political correctness, most Indian intellectuals
refuse to understand the reasons which prompted former British Prime Minister Tony
Blair to advise all British couples to opt for the 5 children norm.
Incidentally, his wife Cherry Blair gave birth to their fourth child while her
husband was Prime Minister. Indeed, in recent years many European countries
have announced liberal cash bonuses to couples who opt for more children. Peter
Costello, Australia's Chancellor of the Exchequer, urged every couple to have
at least 3 children, preferably more – “one child for father, one for the
mother and one for the country”.
Apprehensive of population growth in Indonesia, Peter Costello announced an
incentive of 2000 Australian dollars for every child born after June 2004. Many
keen observers of global population trends like Niall Ferguson, Bernard Lewis,
Robert Costello, Bruce Bawer and Mark Steyn are alerting their countrymen to
the threat posed by demographic changes to their civilisational values.
India has many bleeding heart liberals who will ask why this global panic? The
answer is that in 1900, Muslims constituted only 12% of the world population;
they grew to 18% in 1992-93 (when Huntington published his first thesis on
clash of civilizations). Today Muslims constitute 24% of global population.
Samuel Huntington pointed out that by 2025, they will constitute 30% of world
population. [Source: Spangler, The
Decline of the West].
According to some demographic estimates, Muslims might constitute 37% to 40% of
world population by 2100 AD. In recent years the number of jihads worldwide has
also multiplied; Thailand is the latest entrant to the growing list of jihadi
conflict zones.
In India, the Hindu birth rate is fast approaching the European average.
According to Census 2001, the decadal Total Fertility Rate of Hindus of Kolkata
district (West Bengal) was barely 1.0%, much lower than the birth rates of
Germany, Italy and Spain. In Kerala too the Hindu TFR at 1.64 is below the
replacement level of 2.1in 2001.
Kerala has witnessed a massive increase in Muslim population from approx.
23,75,000 in 1951 to 78,64,000 in 2001. During the same period the population
of Hindus grew from 83,48,000 to 1,79,2000, while that of Christians increased
from 28,26,000 to 60,57,000. During the last five decades the Hindu percentage
in Kerala’s population declined from 61.61 to 56.28, while that of Muslims rose
from 17.53 to 24.70 percent. The percentage share of Christians declined from
20.86 in 1951 to 19.02 in 2001.
The Indian middle class and opinion makers must grasp the long term
consequences of the demographic crisis. In a different context, while analyzing
socio-economic aspects of Census 2001, demographer Ashish Bose
estimated that in 49 districts Muslims already constitute more than 30% of the
population. A back-of-the envelope calculation made in the light of Muslim
growth rate in the last two decades shows that Muslims will attain majority
status in all these 49 districts between 2091 and 2111, perhaps even earlier.
According to a study published by the Centre for Policy Studies, around 2061,
the total Muslim population of the sub-continent (India, Pakistan and
Bangladesh, counted together) will exceed the total Hindu/ Sikh population.
This could lead to a fierce struggle for supremacy in the sub-continent.
This is already visible in the chorus for more unmerited concessions for
Muslims. The Sachar Committee admitted, perhaps unwittingly, that by 2101
Muslim population in India will be around 32 to 34 crores. It was 13.8
crores in 2001 and barely 3.77 crores in 1951.
In recent times, there have been strident demands by Muslim leaders for greater
share in jobs and elected bodies. In 2006, Mohammad Azam Khan of the Samajwadi
Party called for carving a Muslim Pradesh out of Western UP, instead of a Harit
Pradesh advocated by the Rashtriya Lok Dal.
A similar demand to create four or five Muslim-dominated enclaves was voiced by
Dr. Omar Khalidi in an interview published in The
Times of India, New Delhi, June 2004. He later wrote in The Radiance, mouthpiece of
Jamaat-e Islami. He was assiduously following the roadmap for another partition
of India. Advocating the creation of Muslim-dominated enclaves in the Mewat
region of Haryana, certain parts of UP, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka,
Dr. Khalidi demanded reservations for Muslims on the pattern of Kerala,
Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh.
The late Dr. Khalidi was in the forefront of the lobby seeking proportionate
representation for Muslims in various services, especially in the defence
services and para-military forces. He and G.M. Banatwala of the Muslim
League are believed to have indirectly used the Sachar Committee as a medium to
mount political pressure for seeking jobs for Muslims in proportion to their
growing population in government departments, especially the defence and
para-military forces, besides greater representation in Parliament and State
legislatures.
Muslims are fully aware of their future empowerment through sharp growth in
their numbers. Many have started pushing the claim to disproportionate
political power in India. Sometime ago when Amethi MP Rahul Gandhi visited
Aligarh Muslim University, a student asked him how soon he visualized a Muslim
becoming Prime Minister of India. Obviously, the battle lines are being
drawn for another politico-religious conflict in India.
In conclusion, it would be in order to recall late P.N. Mari Bhat and Francis
Zavier’s analysis that the fertility of Muslims was about 10% higher than that
of Hindus before independence and is now 25 to 30% higher than the Hindu rate.
Hindus have lost considerable ground since 1947. Yet no Hindu political or
spiritual leader has tried to rouse the millions of ill informed Hindus about
the looming threat of demographic decimation of their ancient faith and
civilisational values.
The writing on the wall is clear. The Christians of Europe and Hindus of India
have pushed themselves to the edge of suicide by failure to understand the
dynamics of demography in this age of adult suffrage. Russian demographers
describe the rampant recourse to abortion by their countrymen in quest of the
small family norm as ‘do it yourself genocide’.
No comments:
Post a Comment